BlackRock is getting ready to report, and UBS likes what it sees

BlackRock is getting ready to report, and UBS likes what it sees Proactive Wed, July 8, 2026 at 9:57 PM GMT+2 2 min read BLK UBSG. SW BlackRock is getting ready to report, and UBS likes what it sees Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) reports second-quarter results before the bell on July 15, and UBS is telling clients this is a good time to be holding the stock. The bank's case: an attractive valuation paired with a rare combination of growth and defensiveness.

UBS expects strong ETF demand to more than make up for weaker cash and institutional flows this quarter, with organic base fee growth landing around 7. 8%. That would put BlackRock at the high end of its own "6-7% or higher" guidance.

The bank's EPS estimate comes in a bit below consensus, but it sees operating income and other key metrics, including long-term flows, fee rate, and management fees, all coming in ahead of the Street. Behind the numbers, UBS raised its operating income estimate on higher management fees and leaner G&A spending, though that's partly offset by softer performance fees tied to a seasonally quieter first half. Aladdin and Preqin related tech and risk management fees are expected to climb 12% year over year.

Management fees are pegged at $5. 6 billion, ahead of the Street's $5. 5 billion, on the back of a higher average fee rate and AUM.

UBS is modeling average AUM of $14. 5 trillion, above consensus of $14. 3 trillion.

Flows are where things get interesting. UBS is calling for $110 billion in iShares equity inflows, which would be one of the strongest quarters ever for the segment and a step up from $88. 1 billion last quarter.

Fixed income ETFs look even stronger on a relative basis, with an estimated $66 billion in inflows marking a record quarter. On the back of all this, UBS bumped up its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to $53. 87 and $60.

48. The price target holds steady at $1,270, but the bank trimmed its multiple slightly to 21x from 21. 5x, citing growing uncertainty around private assets and how tokenization and perpetual futures could reshape the competitive landscape down the road.

On the earnings call, UBS will focus on six things: whether base fee growth holds up, progress toward BlackRock's 50%+ margin target, competitive positioning of the new iShares Nasdaq-100 ETF, durability of ETF and tech contract value growth, private credit trends, and capital return plans, with buybacks guided at $450 million or more per quarter for the rest of the year.