Billionaire Investor David Einhorn’s Top 5 Bets: Buy Alongside the Skeptic?

Billionaire Investor David Einhorn’s Top 5 Bets: Buy Alongside the Skeptic? Joel South Wed, July 22, 2026 at 5:36 PM GMT+2 7 min read BHFAP PCG NVDA CNR FLR Quick Read BHF trades 6. 6% below a signed $70 all-cash acquisition, while CNR carries unanimous buy ratings and 40% modeled upside analysts aren't pricing in.

Einhorn's five longs share hard catalysts, cheap valuations, and out-of-consensus narratives the broader market still refuses to underwrite. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PG&E didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today .

David Einhorn built his reputation shorting frauds and buying what no one else would touch. His latest 13F reads as a five-stock roadmap through merger arbitrage, coal, and utility power demand, and one of those names is already sitting 6. 6% below a signed $70 all-cash acquisition price.

Miss the setup and you're funding someone else's payday. Thinkstock 1. Brighthouse Financial (The Merger-Arb Layup Nobody's Talking About) Brighthouse Financial ( NASDAQ:BHF ) sits directly on top of a signed deal.

Aquarian Capital LLC is acquiring the company at $70. 00 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at roughly $4. 1 billion, expected to close in 2026 subject to regulatory approvals.

That is a hard catalyst with a hard number, and the market is still pricing it well below the deal. The setup is textbook Einhorn. Shares last traded at $65.

64 as of July 17, 2026, leaving a $4. 36 gross spread, or 6. 6% below the deal price.

Underneath the arb, the annuity engine is humming: Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $4. 15 versus $235M in adjusted earnings the prior year, with the annuities segment generating $324M in adjusted earnings on $2. 18B in sales.

Insiders logged 32 recent transactions with a net buying direction, consistent with a deal on track to close. That kind of spread on a signed deal only stays open when investors doubt the closing. Einhorn clearly doesn't.

Neither, apparently, does the next name on the list, which is riding a very different wave. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PG&E didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today .

2. PG&E (The Data Center Utility Trade) PG&E ( NYSE:PCG ) is the direct pipe into California's AI power demand. The company's data center pipeline hit approximately 4.

6 GW in final engineering, up from 3. 6 GW, with more than 10 GW of pre-application interest. Add a $73B five-year capital plan pushing rate base to roughly $106B by 2030, and this is an income compounder with a growth kicker.

PCG Price Target — 24/7 Wall St. The Street sees it. Analyst sentiment breaks down as 14 buy/strong buy ratings, 4 holds, and zero sells, with a consensus target of $22.

84. Three data points frame the trade: Q1 2026 non-GAAP core EPS of $0. 43 versus $0.

33 a year ago, reaffirmed FY2026 non-GAAP core EPS guidance of $1. 64 to $1. 66, and 9%-plus EPS growth guided annually from 2027 through 2030.

Wildfire non-core charges collapsed to $3M from $40M year over year, and no common equity issuance is planned through 2030. Story Continues Shares closed at $17. 29 on July 17, 2026, up 34.

62% over the past year. The base-case AI model targets $22. 20, roughly 28.

36% upside. If Einhorn is right that AI compute has to plug in somewhere, PG&E is the socket. But the next name plays the same power thesis from a different angle: the ones building the plants.

3. Fluor (The Nuclear Renaissance Contractor) Fluor ( NYSE:FLR ) is the picks-and-shovels bet on the same electrification story. The company is landing new awards across nuclear, data centers, mining, and uranium enrichment, including a Centrus FEED award, and it monetized its NuScale stake for $2.

4B in proceeds since September 2025, including $1. 35B in Q1 2026. That cash is being funneled straight back to shareholders via a $1.

4B share repurchase target for 2026, with $516M already executed in Q1. The quarter was noisy. Adjusted Q1 2026 EPS of $0.

14 missed the $0. 62 consensus by 77. 26%, and revenue of $3.

663B missed by 5. 92%, down 8% year over year. Segment mix skewed heavily toward Urban Solutions at $2.

437B, followed by Energy Solutions at $703M and Mission Solutions at $523M. Crucially, 98% of new awards are reimbursable, insulating margins from execution risk that has plagued this stock for years. Shares last printed $49.

17, up 24. 93% year to date but down 7. 49% over the past 12 months.

The AI model reads it as fairly valued at $49. 98 (HOLD), with a bull-case path to $55. 88.

Einhorn's edge here is patience: the backlog tells the real story. Which brings us to the position he has held longer than any of them. 4.

Green Brick Partners (The Homebuilder Hiding in Plain Sight) Green Brick Partners ( NYSE:GRBK ) is Greenlight's longest-standing anchor position, a Texas-heavy homebuilder Einhorn helped bring public. The setup: peer-leading margins and a fortress balance sheet in a housing market everyone assumes is broken. Homebuilding gross margins hit 29.

4% in Q4 and 30. 5% for FY2025, with net homebuilding debt-to-total capital of just 6. 3% and roughly $520M in liquidity.

The Q4 print did the work. Adjusted diluted EPS of $1. 78 beat the $1.

67 consensus by 6. 59%, revenue of $552. 61M beat by 15.

73%, and net new orders hit a record 883 units. Lot position expanded to 48,828 lots, and a fresh $150M share repurchase was authorized. Valuation is unusually cheap for a builder with these margins: trailing P/E of 11, forward P/E of 11, and price-to-book of 1.

66. Shares traded at $72. 75 on July 17, 2026, up 20% year to date and 248.

42% over five years. The AI model calls a modest BUY with a $76. 42 base case and $80.

94 bull case. Einhorn's read: buy quality when the sector is out of favor. Which sets up the punchline, a name Wall Street left for dead a decade ago.

5. Core Natural Resources (The Coal Comeback Payoff) Core Natural Resources ( NYSE:CNR ) is the trade everyone else is too embarrassed to make. Coal, of all things, is where the AI power thesis and policy tailwinds collide.

AI-driven data center power demand is projected to grow 3. 7% annually over five years, coal has been designated a critical material under 45X, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reduced federal royalty rates. Einhorn has traded this book before, going back to his CONSOL Energy position from January 11, 2021.

The Q1 print flipped the narrative. EPS of $0. 41 beat the $0.

34 consensus by 20. 80%, revenue of $1. 084B beat by 1.

97%, and net income swung to $21M from a $69. 3M loss year over year. The metallurgical segment's adjusted EBITDA flipped from -$20.

84M to +$57. 97M, with cash costs falling 11% to $92. 35 per ton.

Capital returns are aggressive: $733. 8M remaining under a $1B buyback after repurchasing 464,600 shares at an average $90. 23 in Q1.

Shares closed at $82. 66, up 15. 84% year over year and 398.

4% over five years. Analysts are unanimous: 4 buy ratings, zero holds or sells, with a consensus target of $105. 25 and an AI base case of $115.

99, or 40. 32% upside. Rare-earth exploration at the Powder River Basin, showing grades above 1,000 ppm at Black Thunder, is an optionality kicker no one is paying for.

The Thread Einhorn's five longs share a structure: hard catalysts, cheap valuations, and out-of-consensus narratives. A signed $70 cash deal at BHF, 28. 36% modeled upside at PCG, buyback machines at FLR and GRBK, and a coal payoff modeled at 40.

32% upside. The skeptic is on offense, positioned for the trades the rest of the market still refuses to make. The 13F is filed.

The clock is running. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and PG&E didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today .

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