10-year Treasury yield climbs to highest level since January 2025 as $100 oil sparks inflation fears

10-year Treasury yield climbs to highest level since January 2025 as $100 oil sparks inflation fears Ines Ferré · Senior Business Reporter Updated Thu, July 23, 2026 at 7:07 PM GMT+2 2 min read ^TNX ^TYX CL=F BZ=F What happened: Bond yields continued to climb on Thursday as oil prices rose amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East. The 10-year yield ( ^TNX ), used as a benchmark for mortgage and loan rates , rose to 4. 7% on Thursday, the highest level since January 2025.

The 30-year yield ( ^TYX ) climbed to 5. 19%, its highest level since May. The long-dated bond notched its longest stretch above 5% since 2007, the year prior to the financial crisis.

Why it's important: Yields on the 10-year and 30-year remained above key psychological levels, raising concerns about mounting debt and sticky inflation, as Brent crude ( BZ=F ) futures on the Intercontinental Exchange jumped to $100 per barrel on Thursday. The jump occurred after reports of tank strikes off the coast of Saudi Arabia amid escalating fighting between the US and Iran. What else you need to know: Over the past couple of weeks, investors have largely shrugged off rising oil prices as artificial intelligence became the central theme of economic and market growth.

"The resilience of equities despite a 10-year Treasury yield of 4. 65 percent and crude oil prices at $87 per barrel can be attributed to the fact that uncertainty, as measured by ten-day realized volatility, remains low," Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note earlier this week. Another factor keeping the stock market resilient is earnings growth.

"As is widely understood, earnings serve as the foundation of equity valuations, and these estimates continue to trend higher," Kantrowitz wrote. The rise in bond yields comes as worries over a Federal Reserve rate hike this year eased in recent weeks, given recent softer-than-expected inflation prints. Firms like Goldman Sachs and UBS expect the Fed to hold rates steady this year.

However, rising oil prices threaten to reignite inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policy this year, with Polymarket bets of a rate hike in 2026 climbing to 71% on Thursday. "I think the Rates market is ACTUALLY attempting to 'Anticipate the Anticipators,' and possibly then throwing a MINI-TANTRUM, stating that a 'Hawkish Hold' is NOT GOOD ENOUGH," said Nomura Securities equity derivatives analyst Charlie McElligott in a note on Thursday. Read more:  What experts say about the possibility of rate cuts this year Investors are closely watching incoming economic data for clues about the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

Higher energy costs can feed through to consumer prices, potentially slowing progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target. Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre .