Amazon heads into earnings with Wall Street betting big on AWS

Amazon heads into earnings with Wall Street betting big on AWS Proactive Wed, July 22, 2026 at 8:57 PM GMT+2 2 min read BAC AMZN Amazon. com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) reports second-quarter earnings on July 30, and Bank of America is raising the bar ahead of the print, arguing AWS is accelerating faster than the Street expects. BofA now projects second-quarter revenue of $198.

8 billion and operating profit of $24. 1 billion, both above consensus of $196. 8 billion and $23.

6 billion. The upside case centers on AWS: the bank raised its growth estimate to 33% year over year, up from 31%, a 5-point acceleration from the first quarter. The driver is surging demand from AI model providers, with Anthropic-related revenue and OpenAI models on Bedrock cited as key contributors.

AWS margins should expand year over year to 34% on strong capacity utilization and pricing, though they'll contract sequentially as stock-based compensation rises. Retail looks steadier. Bank of America card data shows online spending accelerated 2 points sequentially, consistent with Street expectations for North American retail growth to reach 14% year over year, even as the Prime Day bump appeared more modest than in prior years.

BofA also thinks Amazon could raise its 2026 capex outlook to $210 billion on higher memory costs. For the third quarter, BofA expects revenue guidance of $200. 5 billion to $205.

5 billion, a midpoint just below the Street's $204 billion. That outlook bakes in a roughly $1 billion sequential decline in North American retail tied to Prime Day timing, offset by international growth and AWS accelerating to 36%, adding an estimated $3. 8 billion sequentially.

On profit, BofA expects a guidance range of $21. 5 billion to $26. 5 billion, with a $24 billion midpoint, flattish sequentially and slightly below the Street's $25 billion.

Amazon typically guides conservatively, but AWS acceleration should still drive sequential profit growth. BofA's broader thesis is that results will showcase Amazon's improving AI positioning, including AWS acceleration, an expanding backlog reportedly including $100 billion tied to Anthropic, positive Bedrock datapoints, and margin benefits from Amazon's Trainium chips.