Why this analyst is down on Apple stock even as it hovers near record highs

Why this analyst is down on Apple stock even as it hovers near record highs Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor Tue, July 28, 2026 at 3:09 PM GMT+2 2 min read AAPL The markets always consist of differing views on companies — no single person has perfect information. This rings home as KeyBanc Capital Markets sounded a bearish call on Apple's ( AAPL ) ahead of its earnings report this Thursday. Quick insight: KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel reiterated an Underweight rating, or Sell, on Apple stock today.

With a $250 price target, he expects Apple stock to plunge about 26% from current levels. More from Yahoo Scout Why is KeyBanc bearish on Apple stock? What are Apple's current valuation metrics?

What bullish arguments support Apple's stock price? How has Apple performed compared to market? "With Apple providing a safe haven to the sell-off in semis, we think they are missing the bigger picture, which squarely fits our thesis: as Apple raises iPhone prices, unit growth will slow, and as unit growth slows, so will user growth, which we think ultimately will slow Services growth," Nispel said in a note.

"In addition, with Apple trading at ~34x P/E, and a growth profile that is shifting from volume-led growth to pricing-led growth, we think investors should apply a lower valuation multiple. To us, this makes Apple overvalued at current levels," he explained. AlphaSpace insight: Apple stock has gained a solid 24% this year compared to a 8% advance for the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ).

The tech giant has become more of a safe-haven tech name. While hyperscalers such as Oracle ( ORCL ) and Meta ( META ) load up their balance sheets with debt to fuel AI ambitions — much to investors' dismay — Apple has stayed the course. It's focused on shipping iPhones and various other tech gadgets with little sign of a demand slowdown.

Most on Wall Street are optimistic that Apple will continue its momentum in the near-term. "Over time, we view that continued iteration of integrated AI feature releases should (a) support longer-term demand for product offerings via installed base growth and (b) support longer-term Services growth via monetization of new first-party and third-party apps as well as greater iCloud storage demand with greater personal data and content created with AI features," Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng wrote in a recent note. The bullish rotation into Apple is evident.

Its forward price-to-earnings multiple is 31. 6 times, above its 10-year average of 24. 8 times.

The forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio is 26. 9 times, above the 10-year average of 18. 3 times.

And the forward enterprise value-to-sales ratio is 8. 8 times, above the 10-year average of 6. 2 times.

Bottom line: Opposing views make a market. Nispel offers up several solid reasons to be bearish on Apple. However, his reasons may take time to play out.

By then, Apple may have tossed up a few more quarters that support a higher stock price. Story Continues Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor, host of the Power Players with Brian Sozzi podcast, and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi , Instagram , and LinkedIn .

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