Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They're Not Even Close Anymore.

Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They're Not Even Close Anymore.

Matthew Benjamin, The Motley Fool Fri, July 31, 2026 at 7:50 PM GMT+2 2 min read Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) are far and away the heavyweights in the global market for GLP-1 drugs , which effectively treat both type 2 diabetes and obesity. And that market is exploding, particularly for obesity drugs. The global market for obesity medicines reached $66 billion in 2025.

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4% this year and 58% over the past 52 weeks, while Novo Nordisk shares are up just 0. 4% this year and down 5% over the past 52 weeks. Since July 2024, Novo has plummeted 62%.

What explains the divergence, with Lilly soaring and Novo collapsing? I would point to one number to explain it: market share in the obesity market, which is expected to grow faster than the diabetes drug market. The two drug companies collectively control about 87% of global prescription obesity drug revenue.

Image source: Getty Images. But Lilly is currently dominant in that market, with a majority 60% share, primarily driven by the popularity and efficacy of its Zepbound GLP-1 obesity drug. That's not to say things can't change.

Until recently, most GLP-1 drugs were delivered via injectables (i. e. , needles).

This spring, Novo Nordisk introduced its obesity drug Wegovy in pill form, and it's off to a very fast start. As a result, the Danish firm revised its sales and profit forecasts higher. So, stay tuned.

The GLP-1 race is far from over, and both firms are committed to winning. Should you buy stock in Eli Lilly right now? Before you buy stock in Eli Lilly, consider this: The Motley Fool  Stock Advisor  analyst team just identified what they believe are the  10 best stocks  for investors to buy now… and Eli Lilly wasn't one of them.

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Matthew Benjamin has positions in Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They're Not Even Close Anymore.