Nvidia Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jensen Huang Say?

Nvidia Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jensen Huang Say? Daragh Thomas Wed, August 26, 2026 at 3:51 PM GMT+2 3 min read NVDA KLSH. PVT POLA.

PVT Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA ) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.

m. ET. Polymarket gives the chipmaker a 97% chance of beating earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi , where traders are betting on which words CEO Jensen Huang and his team will say.

Analysts expect earnings of about $2. 09 per share on revenue near $92 billion, roughly double the year-ago quarter. The stock is up about 12% this year but has fallen the day after each of its last four reports, according to Bespoke.

What Kalshi Predicts Nvidia Will Say "Hyperscaler" leads the board at 99%. Nvidia said last quarter it would create a new reporting category for public clouds and major consumer internet companies. Fund manager Dan Niles notes that their capital spending surged 92% year over year.

"Cosmos," the platform Nvidia built to train robots and self-driving systems on simulated worlds, trades at 74%. Other physical-AI terms are also favored to make the call: "Self Driving" trades at 64% and "Humanoid" at 62%. "Omniverse," Nvidia's platform for creating and simulating digital replicas of factories and other physical environments, trades at 58%.

"Gaming" is at 63%. Nvidia no longer reports the business it was built on separately; gaming now sits inside Edge Computing, which generated less than 8% of total revenue last quarter. What Kalshi Predicts Nvidia Will Skip "TSMC" trades at 41%, compared with 18% for "Taiwan.

" As Rubin begins shipping this autumn, traders see Huang as more likely to name manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM ) than discuss the geopolitical risk surrounding where Nvidia's chips are made. "Tariff" trades at 18% and "Trump" at just 8%.

A year of export licenses and revenue-sharing deals kept Nvidia in Washington's orbit, yet traders overwhelmingly expect the president to go unnamed. "H20" sits at 11%. Nvidia's own outlook assumes zero China data center compute revenue, and Siebert CIO Mark Malek calls a China comeback one of the few fresh catalysts left, yet traders bet the chip built for that market never comes up.

"GM" brings up the rear at 4%. The partnership General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM ) struck with Nvidia at last year's GTC conference is strongly favored to go unmentioned.

Reading the Board A standard beat may not be enough. Wall Street expects Nvidia to guide for roughly $104 billion in third-quarter revenue, but Jefferies models $108 billion and UBS says it could exceed $110 billion. Story Continues That creates a much higher unofficial hurdle.

With Morgan Stanley estimating Rubin could contribute nearly $9 billion during the quarter, guidance near $104 billion could be treated as a disappointment even if it meets consensus. Malek argues Nvidia could deliver "the greatest quarter in the history of the semiconductor industry" and still get nothing for it without a new story. Nvidia options implied a 5.

6% post-earnings move in either direction, equivalent to roughly $286 billion in market value, according to Benzinga Pro. Whether Nvidia's guidance clears the whisper number is the $286 billion question. Image: Shutterstock Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Read Also: God Bless America ETF Exec Says Nvidia Wins No Matter Who Leads AI Race: 'Pioneers Die With Arrows in Their Backs' This article Nvidia Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jensen Huang Say? originally appeared on Benzinga. com © 2026 Benzinga.

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