Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer?

Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer? Can Iraq Really Replace Saudi Arabia As The Middle East’s Top Oil Producer? · Oilprice.

com Alex Kimani Mon, September 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT+2 7 min read CL=F TTE XOM The global power of most Middle Eastern countries remains dependent on their oil and/or gas output, so it is little wonder they try to maximise this, either by pushing production higher or by pretending it is higher, or by forecasting that it will be higher at some point soon. Iraq had historically fallen into the last of these categories -- having periodically promised large increases in oil production that never materialised. Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's top oil producer, meanwhile, has fallen into the first category -- alluding to oil production 'capacity' of 11, 12, or 13 million barrels per day (bpd) at varying times.

The facts for Iraq are that its crude oil production averaged 2. 38 million bpd from 1973 until 2026. Before the blockade of the world's major oil transit route began in February, Iraq was producing 4.

14 million bpd. Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia, it has never produced anywhere near its claimed 'capacity' for any sustained period that would warrant that definition according to the U. S.

Energy Information Administration (EIA). Instead, the Kingdom's crude oil production averaged 8. 29 million bpd from 1973 until 2026.

Prior to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, it was producing 10. 1 million bpd. That said, the recent announcement by Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi that the country plans to raise oil production to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within six years may finally be proven correct for three key reasons and may even allow it to surpass Saudi Arabia as the top oil producer in the region.

Related: Oil Prices Climb After U. S. Strikes Three Iranian Tankers and Iran Vows Revenge First, the country has always had sufficient oil reserves to reach that figure, if handled properly.

Officially, according to EIA figures, Iraq holds a very conservatively estimated 145 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves (nearly 18% of the Middle East's total, and around 9% of the world's). Unofficially, as analysed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets , around the same time as producing the official reserves figures, Iraq's Oil Ministry stated that the country's undiscovered resources were around 215 billion barrels. This was in line with a 1997 detailed study by respected oil and gas firm Petrolog, although even this number did not include the parts of northern Iraq in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan.

As highlighted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), this meant that most of these oil sites had been drilled during a period before the 1970s when technical limits and low oil prices gave a narrower definition of what constituted a commercially successful well than would be the case later. Overall, the IEA underlined that ultimately recoverable resources across all of Iraq (including the Kurdistan region) totalled about 246 billion barrels (crude and natural gas liquids). All these figures fall within the parameters of the government-sponsored report -- the Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES), launched in 2013 -- which formulated the three forward oil production profiles for Iraq.

The INES' best-case scenario was for crude oil production capacity to increase to 13 million bpd (at that point by 2017), peaking at around that level until 2023, and finally gradually declining to around 10 million bpd for a long-sustained period thereafter. The mid-range production scenario was for Iraq to reach 9 million bpd (at that point by 2020), and the worst-case INES scenario was for production to reach 6 million bpd (at that point by 2020). Consequently, the current target of 8 to 10 million bpd looks like a reasonable-case scenario.

Story Continues Second, towards the latter part of previous Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's stint in office, and continuing under new man Ali al-Zaidi, there has been a drift back towards the idea in Baghdad of accommodating U. S. demands for a reduction in the widespread corrupt practices that saw Western firms exit the country in recent years.

As had been meticulously observed and reported on for years by the highly-respected independent non-governmental organisation Transparency International (TI) in its  'Corruption Perceptions Index' , Iraq had for years been: "Among the worst countries on corruption and governance indicators, with corruption risks exacerbated by lack of experience in the public administration, weak capacity to absorb the influx of aid money, sectarian issues and lack of political will for anti-corruption efforts. " TI added: "Massive embezzlement, procurement scams, money laundering, oil smuggling and widespread bureaucratic bribery that have led the country to the bottom of international corruption rankings, fuelled political violence and hampered effective state-building and service delivery. " It concluded: "Political interference in anti-corruption bodies and politicisation of corruption issues, weak civil society, insecurity, lack of resources and incomplete legal provisions severely limit the government's capacity to efficiently curb soaring corruption.

" This mass exodus of precisely those Western firms that had possessed the ideal combination of experienced personnel, high technological capabilities, and cutting-edge equipment to drill oil wells optimally and to build out the wide-ranging infrastructure that was essential to Iraq making significant output gains over time was catastrophic for the country. However, as corruption has broadly declined in the West's dealings with Iraq, in tandem with new sanctions imposed by Washington on Baghdad for aiding Iran over the years -- in ways examined in my latest book on the global oil markets -- several of these key firms have returned. Third -- and the most important of these from the combined perspective of oil and gas field development and from key infrastructure construction -- is French supermajor TotalEnergies' US$27-billion four-pronged mega-project finally ratified in 2023.

One part of the project will dramatically increase the amount of gas captured during the process of drilling for oil ('associated gas'). This, in turn, will reduce the amount of oil that Iraq has to use for domestic power generation, freeing up more of it for export, and part of the proceeds from this can go back into field development. Another part will increase production from the Ratawi oil field from roughly 60,000 bpd to 120,000 bpd in its initial execution phase, with an ultimate developmental target of 210,000 bpd.

This will also demonstrate to the Iraqis how a much higher recovery rate can be achieved across its other fields. And finally, the key to it all: the stabilisation and then boosting of pressure at Iraq's biggest oil fields through the treatment and redirection of seawater to these sites through the 'Common Seawater Supply Project' (CSSP), as also fully detailed in my latest book . Given these factors, the chance of Iraq hitting its latest (8-10 million bpd) production target looks to have risen significantly.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on just the super-giant fields and their original individual peak plateau targets in their Technical Service Contracts, shows around 11. 5 million bpd in oil production. This comprises Rumaila at 2.

1 million bpd, West Qurna 2 at 1. 8 million bpd, West Qurna 1 at 1. 6 million bpd, Majnoon at 1.

8 million bpd, Zubair at 1. 2 million bpd, the Kirkuk (Federal Domes) at 1 million bpd, and Halfaya, East Baghdad, Garraf, and Badra at 2 million bpd combined. These peak plateau targets assumed a functioning CSSP, adequate sustained investment, and the most technologically advanced oil firms leading the projects.

Importantly, this 11. 5 million bpd figure does not include any of the other 115 oil fields in Iraq, nor does it include any of the fields in the north of the country that are administered by the semi-autonomous regional government there. By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.

com More Top Reads From Oilprice. com BLM Moves to Fast-Track Oil Permits in Alaska Petroleum Reserve Europe Gas Prices Head for Fourth Straight Weekly Gain Iran Says It's Found Ways to Dodge U. S.

Oil Blockade Oilprice Intelligence brings you the signals before they become front-page news. This is the same expert analysis read by veteran traders and political advisors. Get it free, twice a week, and you'll always know why the market is moving before everyone else.

You get the geopolitical intelligence, the hidden inventory data, and the market whispers that move billions - and we'll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, on us, just for subscribing. Join 400,000+ readers today. Get access immediately by clicking here.