Oil prices approach $100 as Middle East conflict flares, Goldman sees potential upside to $120

Oil prices approach $100 as Middle East conflict flares, Goldman sees potential upside to $120 Jake Conley · Breaking Business News Reporter Tue, September 8, 2026 at 2:22 PM GMT+2 5 min read BZ=F CL=F The price of the world's primary oil benchmark rose close to the $100 per barrel mark on Tuesday, approaching the key level for the first time in two months after a new wave of hostilities in the Middle East. Futures on Brent crude ( BZ=F ) rose roughly 2. 3% to trade near $98.

50 per barrel after briefly crossing $99 earlier in the session, while those on US benchmark WTI crude ( CL=F ) picked up 2. 7% to trade at $94 per barrel. Pressuring the oil complex most immediately on Tuesday were reports that Saudi Arabia has halted operations at energy facilities throughout its southern region, per the kingdom's central press agency, after attacks claimed by the Houthi militant group that has been blockading Saudi oil shipping out of the Red Sea.

The attacks come as the United States and Iran have returned over the past two weeks to a more forcefully kinetic war than had been seen in roughly a month, pushing oil prices higher as worries grow over tightened supply. The United States on Saturday struck three crude oil tankers belonging to the Iranian government after Tehran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a series of ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships in the region, per US Central Command. Two of the three Iranian crude oil tankers were "permanently disabled," while the third was fully destroyed, while no US service-members were harmed, US Central Command said.

The flare-up in conflict in the Middle East as the war enters its sixth month, combined with a global market has fallen into deficit as oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz have remained below pre-war levels, prompted Goldman Sachs' oil strategy desk to raise its price targets for the two key benchmarks on Monday. The bank's desk, led by head of oil research Daan Struyven, now see international Brent and US WTI futures trading at $85 and $80 per barrel, respectively, in December, compared to prior forecasts that were $5 lower. Prices on Brent and WTI will likely trade at $80 and $75, respectively, in 2027, the strategists said.

The global oil market remains in a deficit of roughly 1 million barrels per day, per Goldman Sachs strategists. Chart: Goldman Sachs · Goldman Sachs Oil traders have maintained throughout the course of the war and its disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that prices on the key energy product should be far higher. Part of why they are not, Goldman Sachs strategists said Monday, is because drawdowns of commercial stocks held by private companies in OECD countries — where there is clear visibility into the levels of such stocks, and which play a key role in setting clearing prices — have remained relatively small.

Drawdowns have instead occurred throughout global governmental Strategic Petroleum Reserves; oil that had already been loaded on-water at the start of the conflict; and an implied drawdown in reserves held within China, which has lowered its crude imports to roughly 60% of levels seen last year, per Goldman Sachs. Story Continues That said, prices could move significantly higher if structural pressures are not solved, the Goldman strategists said. While oil supply from the Persian Gulf has recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels as GCC nations have utilized pipelines and other Hormuz workarounds, the strategists estimated Brent futures could rise to $120 per barrel if Gulf supply remains significantly disrupted.

Intensified attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are "the most likely trigger of price upside," the strategists said. Iran said on Monday that a deal between Tehran and the Omani government is Muscat over the Strait of Hormuz was close at hand , with plans for a temporary safe shipping route for vessels to transit the critical waterway, which before the war handled roughly 20% of the world's oil volumes. However, the deal is understood to not include the US, which has maintained that Iran cannot be allowed permanent control over the strait.

Vessels transit the Hormuz Strait off the coast of Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on September 7, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) / · ATTA KENARE via Getty Images In Washington, Trump and the broader administration have continued attempts to jawbone prices downward, even as the market moves the other way. Gasoline prices averaged $4.

15 per gallon nationally on Tuesday, per AAA, up from $4. 02 one month ago. While the Treasury Department under Secretary Scott Bessent has launched so-called "Operation Economic Onslaught" in an attempt to target foreign financing of the Iranian regime, the US has so far held back from major actions against China, the dominant buyer of Iranian oil.

Taken together, the energy market remains in a state of limbo, Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, told Yahoo Finance, where not much has changed even as prices move up. "I don't think things have materially changed compared to two weeks ago," León said. "Even though tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran have re-intensified, I don't think both parties are escalating significantly.

" "If they wanted to hit hard on each other, they could have done it, but they have not," León added. "We've seen this volatile environment [of alternating strikes and diplomacy] … and I think the market is taking into account those recent events. " Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance.

Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake. conley@yahooinc. com .