Stock market today: S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise ahead of crucial Fed interest rate decision

LIVE Stock market today: S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise ahead of crucial Fed interest rate decision Grace O'Donnell and Jake Conley Updated Wed, September 16, 2026 at 5:56 PM GMT+2 1 min read CL=F ^IXIC ^TNX BTC-USD ^DJI US stocks mostly rose on Wednesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to hike interest rates for the first time in three years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) wavered near the flat line, while the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) rose 0. 3%.

The Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) gained 0. 7%. Stocks searched for gains after ending Tuesday's session lower .

A bond sell-off that has pushed the 10-year yield ( ^TNX ) to its highest level since the financial crisis weighed on stock sentiment. Crypto prices tumbled, meanwhile, after the Senate failed to pass a key procedural vote for a regulatory framework for digital assets, known as the Clarity Act. Bitcoin's price ( BTC-USD ) dropped below $76,000.

At the same time, rising oil prices have contributed to worries that inflation will remain stubbornly high. Despite a pause in crude oil's rally, benchmark Brent ( BZ=F ) and WTI ( CL=F ) futures remain above $100 per barrel. That sets the stage for Wednesday's crucial events: the Federal Reserve rate decision, the release of the Fed's dot plot , and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference.

Traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday, with odds at 93%, according to CME Group . Should Warsh and FOMC policymakers follow through with a hike, it could set the Fed up to clash with the White House, as President Trump has ratcheted up calls for lower interest rates. Follow live coverage of the Fed meeting In other economic data releases, August retail sales reaccelerated, rising 1.

2% versus expectations of a 0. 9% increase and July's 0. 5% decline, highlighting that consumers continue to spend despite inflation pains.

LIVE 10 updates Today at 3:56 PM UTC Jake Conley The AI infrastructure trade remains 'firmly constructive,' says BofA analysts Worries about the existential threat of frontier AI development aside, the AI infrastructure build-out remains a hot trade, with no sign of a slowdown in investment, Bank of America says. "AI infra investments remain firmly constructive across chip vendors, frontier labs, DC operators," BofA analysts led by Vivek Arya wrote. The analysts cite several bottlenecks that are keeping supply constrained and the build-out hot.

In the lead are memory computing requirements, "the most wide-spread and tightest constraint. " Comments from industry leads at the AI Infra Summit conference, happening right now in Santa Clara, California, are "pointing to an even tighter setup into 2027," the analysts wrote. Next up is power, as "chip vendors, frontier model builders, and DC operators all [aim] to improve power efficiency.

" One example cited at the conference: Nvidia's new "DSX MaxLPS" technology, which helps extract "40% more compute/throughput/revenue from same DC power envelope. " The final constraint the analysts cited is interconnectivity. Nvidia's GPUs, for example, are powerful, but they also need to communicate with other GPUs on a given AI server rack.

The "fabric" that enables lightning-fast communications is emerging as a key bottleneck for further AI development, the BofA analysts said. Today at 2:44 PM UTC Grace O'Donnell Chip stocks gain on news SK Hynix is exploring a deal with Intel Semiconductor stocks are retracing some of their losses this week. Shares of SK Hynix ( SKHY ) and Intel ( INTC ) led the way higher following reports that the South Korean memory chip maker is exploring a deal with Intel to produce memory silicon wafers in the US.

SK Hynix said it is "exploring various options to strengthen its global competitiveness, but no specific plans or arrangements have been finalized at this time," Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferré reported. Chip stocks may also be rebounding from a sharp sell-off that started at the beginning of the week in response to Anthropic ( ANTH. PVT ) and OpenAI's ( OPAI.

PVT ) calls to slow AI model development. A debate over AI regulation, safeguards, and geopolitical competition has been brewing in markets. Read more.

Today at 2:01 PM UTC Jake Conley US oil and gas production is set to hit a record as producers cash in on global supply crunch US energy output is reaching new highs as producers look to cash in on the major global demand for hydrocarbons created by the war in Iran, according to Melius Research. As the Middle Eastern conflict has largely shuttered the Strait of Hormuz — and increasingly Persian Gulf producers' major workarounds — oil prices have surged as buyers look for cargoes that are increasingly hard to come by. Even with the interim measures that exporters such as Saudi Arabia have been able to utilize, the market remains in a deficit, per Goldman Sachs.

US producers are stepping into that gap: "The shortfall internationally is being met by growth at home," Melius Research's James West and Sanskriti Reddy wrote to clients on Tuesday, with US output for crude and natural gas both forecast to hit records this year. US crude oil and natural gas production are both expected to hit records this year, per Melius Research. Chart: Melius Research · Melius Research In the Permian Basin, prices producers can charge "remain comfortably above basin breakevens to continue to support drilling and associated gas activity," West and Reddy wrote.

To the east, gas production is growing in the Haynesville region. And to the south, offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico is rising, with several new deepwater oil projects set to ramp up their production, per Melius. "We see this dynamic positioning US producers to keep gaining share of global supply," West and Reddy wrote.

Today at 1:37 PM UTC Jake Conley US stock market moves into the green at the opening bell on Wednesday The US stock market began a move into the green on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve's rate decision only hours away. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI ) held slightly below the flat line, while the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) picked up a modest 0. 2%.

The Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) rose by 0. 4% Ahead of the FOMC's rate-setting decision at 2 p. m.

ET, Treasury bond yields and oil prices are in focus for investors, as both have moved higher in recent days. Yields on the 10-year Treasury ( ^TNX ) have reached levels not seen since 2007, while oil futures ( BZ=F , CL=F ) are back above $100. Moving the other way on Wednesday morning were cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks, both selling off after a key Senate vote on the Clarity Act failed to reach the needed threshold to pass.

Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) dropped below $76,000. Today at 1:08 PM UTC Grace O'Donnell Retail sales rise 1. 2% in August, surpassing expectations US retail sales rose by more than expected in August, according to fresh data from the Census Bureau.

Retail sales grew 1. 2% last month to $773. 9 billion, bouncing back from a revised decline of 0.

5% in July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a 0. 9% increase.

Retail sales excluding autos, auto parts, and gas also rose 1. 2% month over month. Nearly all categories saw retail sales increase.

The data showed that consumers continued to spend even as they reported feeling worse about economic conditions . Last Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary reading of September consumer sentiment deteriorated for a second month in a row as inflation worries and persistently high gas prices remained top of mind. A recent report from PwC also found that US consumer spending is expected to largely hold up heading into the crucial holiday shopping season, with Americans planning to spend an average of $708 on gifts.

Today at 12:19 PM UTC Ines Ferré Death of software 'greatly overstated' as sector flips the script on chip stocks: Chart of the Day Software stocks, once left in the dust, have bounced back in recent months as high-flying chip stocks take a back seat. "One of the things that was greatly overstated earlier this year was the death of software," Brian Mulberry, Zacks Investment Management chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "In order to engage with these AI tools … you need software to customize those tools for your business, " he said.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) is up 15% over the past three months and more than 40% higher from its April lows. Among individual movers, Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Palantir ( PLTR ) are both up 30%, while Salesforce ( CRM ) has risen more than 50% since mid-June. In comparison, the iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) is down 17% over the three-month period, according to Yahoo Finance's AlphaSpace chart.

Read more. Software veresus chip stocks Today at 11:46 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Federal Reserve interest rate hikes usually pound stocks, but then something surprising happens Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Brace for minor market tremors if the Fed hikes interest rates, as many on Wall Street think will happen later today. But if history holds up, any losses could prove short-lived.

The S&P 500 has declined by an average of 4. 0% over the six weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across seven such episodes since 1988, per new analysis from strategists at The Kobeissi Letter. Stocks recovered all of those losses over the next five to six weeks on average.

In the six months following the first interest rate hike, the S&P 500 returned 4. 0% on average. After 12 months, the S&P 500's average gain tallied +9.

0%. Positive returns have occurred in every episode except 2022 over the twelve months. "Fed rate hikes have historically been great buying opportunities," the strategists added.

Read more. Today at 10:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Crypto losses deepen after failed Clarity Act cloture vote Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) continued to slide on Wednesday, falling below $76,000, as hopes that the Clarity Act will pass this year faded. The same went for other cryptocurrencies and crypto-related stocks, such as Robinhood ( HOOD ) and Coinbase ( COIN ), though the losses were not as severe as Tuesday's rout.

On Tuesday, the Senate voted 49–50 to block the Clarity Act from proceeding beyond debate, stalling progress on a regulatory framework for crypto. Yahoo Finance's Hal Bundrick reports on what the vote means for crypto regulation: In an interview with Yahoo Finance , Faryar Shirzad, chief policy officer at Coinbase, said that if the bill becomes law, it would pave the way forward for digital assets. "If the bill passes, what you have is the U.

S. finally doing what every other G20 country has done, which is to establish legislatively a regulatory framework about how crypto markets operate," he said. "That's a huge deal because the future of finance is being built on the blockchain.

This law gives developers, innovators, traditional financial companies — all of us — the regulatory certainty we need to know how to build the next generation of finance and what rules apply. " Shipkevich said cryptocurrency holders are unlikely to see any immediate effects if the Clarity Act becomes law. "On the institutional side, I can see a short-term, immediate catalyst for new institutional crypto projects," he said.

"I imagine that we will see the institutional space pour more money into the crypto sphere since regulatory clarity is always good for investment. " Read more. Today at 9:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Good morning.

Here's what's happening today. Economic data: FOMC rate decision; MBA mortgage applications, week ended Sept. 11 (-2.

7% previously); New York Fed services business activity, September (0. 5 previously); Retail sales advance, month-on-month, August (+0. 9% expected, -0.

6% previously); Retail sales ex auto and gas, month-on-month, August (+0. 4% expected, -0. 2% previously); Import price index, year-on-year, August (+5.

9% previously); Export price index, year-on-year, August (+8. 2% previously); Business inventories, July (+0. 2% expected, +0% previously); NAHB housing market index, September (34 expected, 35 previously) Earnings calendar: Lennar Corporation ( LEN ) Catch up on some top stories from overnight: Bitcoin tumbles 4% to $75,000 as hopes of CLARITY Act passage this year fade We don't need AI regulation — leave safety to us, Nvidia's Jensen Huang says Median US income rises to highest on record even as Americans feel affordability pinch BOJ set to raise interest rates to 31-year high as inflation risks loom The AI gold rush has a dress code: steel-toe boots Today at 8:00 AM UTC Grace O'Donnell Asian markets make nervous start ahead of Fed decision Reuters reports: Stocks made tentative gains at the start of the Asian trading session on Wednesday as a rise in ‌global bond yields and oil prices paused ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy ‌decision due later in the day.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fluctuated between gains and losses ​after declining for four consecutive sessions and was last up 0. 2%, led by a 0. 8% gain in Korean shares.

S&P 500 e-mini futures nudged 0. 1% higher. Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 slumped 0.

5%, marking its second consecutive day of declines as the yield on the ‌10-year Treasury bond hit its ⁠highest level since 2007. "U. S.

equity markets closed lower overnight as rising Treasury yields, another jump in crude and the polarised debate around pacing ⁠AI development left the market in a cautious mood," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney. Read more.