Constellation Energy vs. Vistra: 2 Very Different Bets on the Same AI Power Boom. Here's Which One I'd Buy.

Constellation Energy vs. Vistra: 2 Very Different Bets on the Same AI Power Boom. Here's Which One I'd Buy.

Leo Sun, The Motley Fool Wed, September 16, 2026 at 6:45 PM GMT+2 4 min read CEG VST NVDA The AI market's rapid expansion has sparked a massive increase in electricity demand, especially among data centers, over the past few years. That AI power boom is generating strong tailwinds for Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) and Vistra (NYSE: VST), two of the largest independent power producers in the United States. Over the past three years, Constellation's stock has rallied 137%, and Vistra's stock has soared 330%.

Let's see which of these AI-driven electrification stocks is a better buy right now. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.

In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » Image source: Getty Images.

The differences between Constellation and Vistra Constellation's nuclear , natural gas, oil, geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar facilities have a total capacity of 55 GW. That's enough power for roughly 27 million homes. It directly sells its power to residential and commercial customers through its eponymous retail electricity services.

Constellation operates the country's largest nuclear fleet with a total capacity of 22 GW. That business serves 80% of the Fortune 100, including the top hyperscalers, and drives most of its earnings growth. A major catalyst has been the Zero-Emission Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), which was established under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

If power prices are too low, the PTC subsidizes its business, but if they're high, the PTC amplifies its gains. Vistra operates natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities with a total capacity of 44 GW, which can power 22 million homes. It sells electricity through its subsidiaries, including TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, and Ambit, as well as other utilities.

Like Constellation, Vistra holds long-term power purchasing agreements (PPAs) with several tech titans. It also benefits from the PTC and other tax credits for renewable energy and storage providers. However, Vistra's nuclear fleet, which accounts for only about 15% of its total capacity, is much smaller than Constellation's.

It primarily relies on natural gas, which accounts for 62% of its capacity, as well as its coal-fired and renewable businesses to drive earnings growth. Which company is growing faster? In 2025, Constellation's adjusted operating earnings rose 8%.

For 2026, it expects that figure to grow 22%-33% to $11. 50-$12. 50 per share.

At $256, it trades at 21 times the midpoint of that outlook. Analysts expect its adjusted earnings to rise 29% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. Story Continues Several catalysts should drive that growth: its 20-year PPA with Microsoft to restart Unit 1 at Three Mile Island (rebranded as the Crane Clean Energy Center), the scaling of its PPAs with Meta and Walmart , the full integration of Calpine, which it acquired this January; and capacity-boosting upgrades for its existing plants.

In 2025, Vistra's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from ongoing operations -- which is comparable to Constellation's adjusted operating earnings -- rose 5%. For 2026, it expects that figure to rise 15%-29% to $6. 8-$7.

6 billion. With an enterprise value of $65. 7 billion, it trades at just nine times the midpoint of that outlook.

Analysts expect Vistra's adjusted EBITDA to grow 29% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. That growth should be fueled by its massive, AI-driven PPAs with Meta and Amazon , its planned takeover of Cogentrix, expected to close by the end of 2026, and Helix Digital Infrastructure -- a newly formed joint venture to develop AI data centers. Which stock is the better buy right now?

Constellation and Vistra have both been under pressure over the past year as investors fretted over higher interest rates and a potential slowdown in AI spending. However, they're both still reliable long-term plays on the insatiable demand for more electricity. If I had to pick one of these stocks to capitalize on the AI energy boom, I'd pick Vistra because it's more diversified, has more exposure to natural gas (the single largest source of electricity for U.

S. data centers today) than Constellation, and its stock is fundamentally cheaper. Constellation is still a great nuclear play, but its stock doesn't seem like a screaming bargain yet.

Should you buy stock in Constellation Energy right now? Before you buy stock in Constellation Energy, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Constellation Energy wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $420,109 ! * Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005...

if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,303,689 ! * That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by 4x , Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage.

Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor , and join an investing community built for the long haul. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of September 16, 2026. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon and Meta Platforms.

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Vistra, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy . Constellation Energy vs.

Vistra: 2 Very Different Bets on the Same AI Power Boom. Here's Which One I'd Buy.