Eisman: Tesla’s Multiple Is Crazy Unless You “Believe that Tesla’s Robotaxi Business will Conquer the World.” “Count Me As a Skeptic”

Eisman: Tesla’s Multiple Is Crazy Unless You “Believe that Tesla’s Robotaxi Business will Conquer the World. ” “Count Me As a Skeptic” AJ Tiarsmith Fri, September 18, 2026 at 4:36 PM GMT+2 5 min read TSLA GM Quick Read Tesla trades at 220x 2026 earnings versus GM's 6. 5x, yet GM has returned 43% over the past year while Tesla has lost nearly 15%.

Eisman notes Tesla's EPS has collapsed 59% from its 2022 peak of $4. 07, with Q2 2026 free cash flow turning negative $1. 09 billion.

Tesla expanded unsupervised robotaxi to seven U. S. cities and hit 1.

48 million FSD subscriptions, but plans $25 billion-plus in 2026 CapEx to fund it. Read More: Avoid these 13 retirement mistakes before they derail your future (sponsor) Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager made famous by The Big Short , laid out the math on his weekly wrap podcast: "The consensus estimate for Tesla for 2026 is $1. 66, so the 2026 PE is 220 times.

Auto stocks by contrast, have very low multiples. GM's 2026 P E is 6. 5 times.

The only explanation for Tesla's crazy multiple is that some investors believe that Tesla's robotaxi business will conquer the world. Now I have no skin in this game, just count me a skeptic. " Shutterstock That framing puts Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) and General Motors ( NYSE:GM ) on opposite ends of an autonomy bet with a surprising scoreboard.

Eisman's Fundamental Case Eisman's skepticism starts with earnings. Tesla's EPS peaked in 2022 at $4. 07, and the 2026 consensus of $1.

66 sits 59% below that peak. His conclusion: "the people who were short were right on the fundamentals. " Tesla trades at a P/E of 381, price-to-book of 17.

6, and price-to-free-cash-flow of 232. 5, with return on equity of just 4. 9% and an operating margin of 4.

6%. In its Q2 2026 8-K filed July 22, 2026, Tesla posted revenue of $28. 24 billion (up 25.

5% year over year), but non-GAAP EPS of $0. 33 missed the $0. 54 estimate by 38.

5%, operating income fell 56. 9% to $398 million, and free cash flow flipped to negative $1. 09 billion.

TSLA Price Target — 24/7 Wall St. Eisman also noted Tesla's stock fell 6% on the day of its robotaxi event, citing Elon Musk's "history of overpromising and under delivering. " Learn 13 Major Retirement Mistakes and Ways To Avoid Them One investment mistake could create big risks for your retirement.

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Access your complimentary copy here (sponsor) Robotaxi Bull Case Tesla Is Selling Story Continues Tesla is executing on autonomy. Per the Q2 report, Robotaxi service has expanded to seven U. S.

metros, including unsupervised rides in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, and active FSD subscriptions reached 1. 48 million, up 56% year over year. VP of AI Ashok Elluswamy said Tesla had "driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi" with "zero notable incidents.

" Musk described the pace as "going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi" while managing reliability. CFO Vaibhav Taneja said CapEx for 2026 would exceed $25 billion and continue growing for "the next two or three years," with debt facilities being lined up to borrow up to $30 billion. GM Counterpoint Investors Missed Over the same five-year window, the 6.

5x automaker has outrun the 220x robotaxi story. GM is up 80. 47% over five years and 47.

09% over the past year, while Tesla is up 48. 66% over five years and down 1. 07% over the past year.

Live pricing confirms the pattern: GM has returned 43. 13% over the past year against Tesla's -14. 81% one-year performance and -19.

33% year-to-date. GM's fundamentals justify the re-rating. The company posted Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.

57, beating the $3. 18 estimate by 12. 1% (a fifth consecutive beat), and raised full-year guidance to EBIT-adjusted of $14.

0B to $16. 0B and adjusted EPS of $12. 00 to $14.

00. Mary Barra emphasized "multiple engines of margin expansion and growth" spanning trucks, OnStar, Super Cruise, GM Defense, and insurance. GM trades at a P/E of 29, price-to-book of 1.

28, and free cash flow yield of 14. 1%. GM Earnings Explorer — 24/7 Wall St.

What to Watch Eisman's skepticism rests on one question: does Tesla's robotaxi network compound fast enough to justify a multiple roughly 13x GM's on 2026 numbers? The next signposts are unsupervised mileage growth, FSD attach rates above the current 55% North American level, and whether operating margins recover. The cheap automaker has been the better stock.

Help Avoid These 13 Retirement Mistakes Before They Derail Your Future One investment mistake could create big risks for your retirement. Many investors make the same critical errors: being too conservative, making big bets on "sure things," or paying excessive fees. Any of those blunders can endanger your hard-earned savings.

Now you can learn the mistakes even experienced investors make (and ways you can sidestep them before it's too late) with this new guide: 13 Retirement Mistakes and How to Avoid Them from Fisher Investments. (sponsor) Contact editorial@247wallst. com for any questions or corrections.