Airbnb hotels and experiences push could add $1.8B to 2030 revenue, Jefferies estimates

Airbnb hotels and experiences push could add $1. 8B to 2030 revenue, Jefferies estimates Airbnb hotels and experiences push could add $1. 8B to 2030 revenue, Jefferies estimates Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Proactive Fri, June 5, 2026 at 5:39 PM GMT+2 2 min read ABNB Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB, XETRA:6Z1) is on track to sustain double-digit revenue growth through the end of the decade as its expansion into hotels, travel experiences, and higher take rates adds meaningful incremental revenue, Jefferies said, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.

Analysts at Jefferies project that each of the three growth drivers -- hotels, experiences, and take rate expansion -- could contribute roughly one percentage point to annual revenue growth between 2025 and 2030, underpinning estimates that now sit above Wall Street consensus. Airbnb integrated independent hotels into its core platform last year, initially launching in three markets before expanding to approximately 20. Jefferies views hotels as a way for Airbnb to address use cases historically unsuitable for home rentals, including one-night stays, business travel, and last-minute bookings, while also filling supply gaps in markets prone to seasonal demand spikes.

The firm estimates Airbnb's share of online bookings for independent hotels will grow from roughly 1% today to 3. 5% by 2030, adding approximately $1 billion to 2030 revenue. On the experiences side, Jefferies argues Airbnb is well positioned to capture a larger slice of the global travel experiences market given the pre-arrival interaction between guests and hosts, which the firm sees as a natural cross-sell opportunity.

Of the roughly $280 billion spent globally on experiences, only about $80 billion is currently booked online, compared to a 65% online penetration rate for lodging. Jefferies expects online experiences bookings to reach approximately $150 billion by 2030 and sees Airbnb's share rising from 1. 5% to 3% over that period, contributing $800 million to 2030 revenue.

Take rate expansion represents a third avenue for growth, with Jefferies estimating that enhanced host and guest services, particularly a broader travel insurance offering, could add roughly 75 basis points to take rate by 2030, translating to approximately $1. 3 billion in additional 2030 revenue. The firm did flag a potentially larger opportunity in sponsored listings, estimating the product could add roughly 300 basis points to take rate within five years of launching and contribute $4.

5 billion to revenue on 2030 bookings. However, Jefferies moved sponsored listings out of its base case and into an upside scenario, citing Airbnb's apparent near-term focus on recently launched products and reduced confidence in a near-term rollout. The sponsored listings scenario underpins a $250 upside price target and a 3.

5-to-1 risk-reward. Jefferies raised its 2027 gross booking value and EBITDA estimates to 1% and 2% above consensus, respectively, reflecting confidence in the durability of growth as newer products scale.