'The chokepoints now run both ways': JPMorgan says 5 forces are quietly reshaping the US-China balance of power

'The chokepoints now run both ways': JPMorgan says 5 forces are quietly reshaping the US-China balance of power Xinhua News Agency / Getty Images Aditi Ganguly Thu, June 4, 2026 at 2:15 PM GMT+2 10 min read JPM Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. Between tariffs, political posturing and the war in Iran, the relationship between the U. S.

and China is a tense one these days. And that uncertainty can add a layer of volatility to the markets, which impacts both investment and retirement accounts. Rival nations don’t have to resolve all of their differences to work together.

In the Cold War, for instance, the Soviet Union was still a customer of U. S. wheat (1) and corn — and U.

S. companies laid the groundwork to open locations (2) in the country. So, the recent summit between leaders of the U.

S. and China, while it failed to yield (3) many confirmed deals, was an important step in ending some of the uncertainty the past few years have brought. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), in a note to investors (4), said it saw five forces that could reshape the equilibrium between the two countries.

And that, in turn, could lead to everything from lower retail prices to increased optimism on Wall Street. Top Picks Here’s how to get rich from rising US property values with as little as $100 — and without the stress of angry tenants Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s how to fix it ASAP The IRS usually taxes gold as a collectible — but this little-known strategy lets you hold physical bullion tax-free. Get your free guide from Priority Gold A damaged relationship, but not an absent one While the trade link between the countries has weakened, it hasn’t vanished, the bank said.

China is still a country that’s dependent on trade. It’s simply less dependent on the U. S.

than it used to be. U. S.

imports from China hit lower points last year than during the pandemic and are expected to drop even further this year. “Decoupling is occurring, but there is likely significant trade rerouting through other markets,” the bank wrote. Parallel chokepoints Leverage is something the U.

S. and China are both fighting for, with tariffs the most visible of the pressure points. The U.

S. , though, can also utilize semiconductor exports and investment restrictions to help its cause. Rare-earth supplies are just as important, though and the advantage there goes to China, which accounts for roughly 70% of rare-earth mining, 90% of separation and processing and 93% of magnet manufacturing.

“The chokepoints now run both ways,” JPMorgan wrote. “Both sides now know the pressure points. The goal is to manage them before they become shocks.

” Read More: Here’s the average income of Americans by age in 2026. Are you falling behind? Taiwan Perhaps the most central issue between the two countries, this is the crisis both sides want to avoid.

“One estimate suggests a Taiwan blockade could reduce U. S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 5% and China’s GDP by 9%,” the bank wrote.

Story Continues That’s a potential disruption that makes the situation in Iran look small. A global relationship China’s Belt and Road Initiative (5), a global infrastructure and economic development strategy designed to help China and its partner countries share and trade things, spans roughly 150 countries, meaning any tensions are not just confined to the U. S.

and China. But if those two countries can restore the equilibrium between them, it could benefit many other nations as well, making it easier to manage costs. Dialogue could be the start of stabilization A key question is whether the just-concluded summit was a one-off event or the start of a longer series of talks between the countries.

If so, that reduces the risk of economic disputes becoming something broader, which should calm markets. “It’s less about the dialogue and more about whether future engagement produces mechanisms to help manage disputes on things like trade and investment channels, purchase commitments, artificial intelligence (AI) dialogue, tariff language and working-level forum,” JPMorgan wrote. “Dialogue does not mean a reset, but rather a test of whether the world’s two largest economies can make a fragile relationship more predictable.

” What it means for your money The future of U. S. -China relations remains uncertain.

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing in mid-May aimed to reduce trade tensions and establish a more structured framework for managing future disputes. But with many details still being negotiated, it's too early to know whether a lasting agreement will emerge (6). Geopolitical flare-ups can ripple through financial markets, supply chains and consumer prices with little warning.

That's why building a portfolio that can withstand uncertainty may be more important than trying to predict what comes next. Invest in recession-proof assets One of the most effective ways to navigate uncertain times is to own assets that have historically held up during market volatility. Gold, in particular, has earned its reputation as a safe-haven asset.

Unlike stocks and bonds, it often moves independently of traditional financial markets. During periods of geopolitical conflict or economic instability, investors frequently turn to gold as a store of value — helping preserve purchasing power when uncertainty is running high. One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold .

This way, you can hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold . If you opt for Priority Gold’s platinum package, you can get free account setup and insured shipping and storage for up to five years. Plus, you can also rollover your existing IRA or 401(k) into a precious metals IRA with Priority Gold — tax and penalty free.

And when you make a qualifying purchase with Priority Gold, you can receive up to $10,000 in precious metals for free. Just keep in mind that gold is often best used as one part of a well-diversified portfolio. Real estate can also offer a measure of protection during periods of geopolitical turbulence.

While headlines may send stock markets swinging from one day to the next, real estate investments are backed by tangible assets and ongoing demand for housing, commercial space and rental properties. The good news is that gaining exposure to real estate doesn't necessarily require buying and managing a property yourself. Mogul is a real estate investment platform offering fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties , which gives investors monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 a.

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Simply put, you can invest in institutional quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost. Each property undergoes a vetting process, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual yearly return of 18.

8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% to 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours , with investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property.

Each property is held in a standalone Propco LLC, so investors own the property — not the platform. Blockchain-based fractionalization adds a layer of safety, ensuring a permanent, verifiable record of each stake. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties .

Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks. Create an emergency fund Not every financial shock comes from the stock market. Geopolitical tensions can contribute to rising inflation, job-market uncertainty and unexpected economic slowdowns that strain household budgets.

That's where an emergency fund can serve as a crucial financial buffer. Having three to six months' worth of living expenses set aside in a readily accessible savings account can help you cover unexpected costs without liquidating your investments. A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3. 30% through program banks and new clients can get an extra 0. 75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.

05% . That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s March report. Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.

25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4. 30% . With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times.

Plus, you get access to up to $8 million FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks . Consult a fiduciary advisor Geopolitical uncertainty can make even seasoned investors second-guess their strategy. A fiduciary financial advisor can help cut through the noise and focus on the factors that actually matter to your long-term goals.

There’s also a financial upside. Investors who work with professional advisors can potentially achieve returns that are about 3% higher than those who don’t, according to Envestnet (7). The benefits become particularly pronounced for investors with portfolios of $250,000 or more.

As account balances grow, so do the opportunities — and potential pitfalls. A fiduciary advisor can help ensure your investment strategy remains aligned with your objectives while preparing your portfolio for whatever surprises the global economy may deliver next. No matter how much you like your financial advisor as a person, if they're not keeping you on track to reach your financial goals, it might be time to find another pro who will.

Finding a reputed FINRA/SEC-registered advisor near you is now easier than ever with WiserAdvisor . Just answer a few questions about your savings, retirement timeline and overall investment portfolio and WiserAdvisor will review its network to match you — for free — with up to three vetted, reputable advisors aligned to your specific needs. WiserAdvisor does the heavy lifting when vetting financial advisors on its roster.

Each advisor is screened based on their years of experience, their SEC/FINRA registration and records and compensation criteria. Just schedule a no-obligation consultation with your matches to find the best fit for your long-term goals. Note: WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly.

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Here’s why and how to protect yourself Robert Kiyosaki says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year and begs investors not to miss this ‘explosion’ Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now. - With files from Chris Morris.

Article Sources We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines . U.

S. Department of State Office of the Historian (1) ; History (2) ; BBC (3) ; JPMorgan Chase (4) ; National Center for Biotechnology Information (5) ; World Economic Forum ( 6 ); Envestnet ( 7 ) This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.