Psyched about the SpaceX IPO? Don't forget the brutal lesson from Facebook's IPO.

Psyched about the SpaceX IPO? Don't forget the brutal lesson from Facebook's IPO. Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor Tue, June 9, 2026 at 3:38 PM GMT+2 2 min read SPCX META ^GSPC ^IXIC TFC The excitement is building around the SpaceX ( SPCX ) IPO, which is set to debut on the Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC ) on Friday.

But before you lose your mind trying to buy SpaceX stock on its opening day, keep in mind what happened when Mark Zuckerberg brought Facebook to public markets. The quick insight: After its IPO on May 18, 2012, Facebook (now Meta ( META )) stock fell 54% from peak to trough and finished its first year down 32%. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) was up 10% over the same period.

The main issue for Facebook was valuation, given its business model. Facebook was priced for perfection at a moment when its core advertising business model was largely unproven, and Wall Street simply got ahead of the fundamentals. The Facebook IPO was a bust.

· Yahoo Finance The analysis: Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner studied 30 of the last major IPOs, which showed forward returns skew negative at the six- and 12-month horizons. The majority face substantial drawdowns in the first year. Two callouts from Lerner's new analysis: The average six- and twelve-month returns for 30 of the last major IPOs both show a decline of 9%.

The biggest 12-month declines include Lyft ( LYFT ) at 65%, Coinbase ( COIN ) at 55%, Robinhood ( HOOD ) at 74%, and Rivian ( RIVN ) at 67%. Lerner said, "The projected size and retail participation are likely to drive significant volatility alongside excitement around the SpaceX IPO. " Bottom line: SpaceX is poised to be the largest initial public offering on record.

Current expectations are for the company to raise $75 billion at a $1. 75 trillion valuation. According to the prospectus, revenue last year skyrocketed 33% year over year to $18.

7 billion, fueled by a 32% surge in Starlink satellite internet sales. Starlink is a proven business that's likely to stay strong well into the future. But SpaceX did post a massive $4.

94 billion GAAP net loss for full-year 2025 and a brutal $4. 28 billion net loss in the first quarter of this year. The primary culprit for the losses is Musk's capital-intensive pivot into artificial intelligence infrastructure, with SpaceX throwing $40 billion annually into AI capital expenditures.

It's unlikely the business will turn a profit for the foreseeable future. At the end of the day, investors would be buying a speculative, future-forward ecosystem priced at an exorbitant 100 times trailing sales. The SpaceX IPO won't be for the faint of heart.

Even for the brave investors, the near-term trajectory for the stock may not take off like a rocket. Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi , Instagram , and LinkedIn .

Tips on stories? Email brian. sozzi@yahoofinance.

com.