This ETF Has Outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of the Past 20 Years. Will This Year Be the Same?

This ETF Has Outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of the Past 20 Years. Will This Year Be the Same? Stefon Walters, The Motley Fool Wed, June 10, 2026 at 10:58 AM GMT+2 4 min read ^GSPC QQQ NVDA INTC The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is typically the benchmark investors use to determine whether a specific investment "outperformed" or "underperformed.

" Although plenty of Wall Street "experts" assemble and actively manage funds, most of them fail to outperform the S&P 500 over the long term. One passively managed fund that has had the opposite fortune is the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ) . Over the past two decades, it has been one of the better-performing ETFs on the market, and in that span, it has outperformed the S&P 500 16 times.

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Image source: Getty Images. A rundown of QQQ's past performance Here's how QQQ's total returns (which take dividends into account) compare to the S&P 500 over the past 20 years: Year QQQ Total Return S&P 500 Total Return 2025 20. 8% 17.

9% 2024 25. 6% 25% 2023 54. 9% 26.

3% 2022 (32. 6%) (18. 1%) 2021 27.

4% 28. 7% 2020 48. 6% 18.

4% 2019 39% 31. 5% 2018 (0. 1%) (4.

4%) 2017 32. 7% 21. 8% 2016 7.

1% 12% 2015 9. 5% 1. 4% 2014 19.

1% 13. 7% 2013 36. 6% 32.

4% 2012 18. 1% 16% 2011 3. 3% 2.

1% 2010 20. 1% 15. 1% 2009 54.

7% 26. 5% 2008 (41. 7%) (37%) 2007 19% 5.

5% 2006 6. 8% 15. 8% Data source: YCharts.

Table by the author. Much of QQQ's success has come from the technology boom over the past 20 years. Although it holds companies from almost all non-financial sectors, it has historically been a tech-leaning ETF .

As of May 30, the tech sector accounted for 66. 9% of QQQ. What will it take for QQQ to outperform in 2026?

Whether QQQ will outperform the S&P 500 this year will come down to the performance of these seven companies: Nvidia Apple Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Broadcom Tesla They're all among the top 10 holdings of both QQQ and the S&P 500, but the difference lies in how much each leans on them. Company QQQ Weight S&P 500 Weight Nvidia 8. 7% 7.

9% Apple 7. 6% 6. 5% Alphabet 6.

6% 6. 5% Microsoft 5. 6% 4.

9% Amazon 4. 6% 4. 2% Tesla 3.

8% 1. 7% Broadcom 3% 3. 2% Data sources: Invesco and Vanguard.

QQQ holdings as of June 5. S&P 500 holdings as of April 30. These companies account for 39.

3% of QQQ, while "only" accounting for 31. 9% of the S&P 500. When they're flourishing, QQQ is almost guaranteed to outperform the S&P 500.

When they're struggling, the S&P 500 will struggle as well, but not as much. Story Continues A good example is June 5, when a big tech sell-off caused QQQ to drop 4. 8%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.

6%. Of course, that's a small sample size, but the same happened during the 2022 bear market. What are the chances of QQQ outperforming again?

Nobody can predict how stocks will perform, but I believe QQQ will beat the S&P 500 again this year. There are concerns that tech stock valuations are overinflated and due for a correction, but that's an issue both QQQ and the S&P 500 would have to reckon with. Even if QQQ underperforms this year, it's still a great long-term investment.

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Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

This ETF Has Outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of the Past 20 Years. Will This Year Be the Same?