JPMorgan Lowers Q2 Delivery Estimates for Tesla (TSLA), Here’s What You Need to Know

JPMorgan Lowers Q2 Delivery Estimates for Tesla (TSLA), Here’s What You Need to Know Talha Qureshi Mon, June 29, 2026 at 9:55 AM GMT+2 2 min read TSLA Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ) is one of the Stocks That Will Make You Rich Over the Next 3 Years . Tesla, Inc.

(NASDAQ:TSLA) has declined around 13% over the past month. The decline has been driven by heavy capital expenditure guidance and autonomous vehicle regulatory hurdles, which offset the momentum from fiscal Q1 2026 earnings. Nevertheless, the Street remains bullish on the stock as analysts' 12-month average price target suggests around 20% upside from the current level.

​Recently, on June 24, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta lowered his Q2 delivery estimate for Tesla to 420,000 units, down from 430,500. The analyst noted that the lowered guidance is driven by mixed signals related to electric vehicle demand globally. ​Gupta highlighted the US and China as softer markets compared to a year ago, but noted Europe to be the strongest region.

While the US and China have been softer due to fading purchase incentives, Europe is seen as a positive tailwind. The firm highlighted the company's recent Full Self-Driving approvals across several European markets as a meaningful catalyst for consumer awareness and interest. ​Moreover, JPMorgan also likes the heavy investment in Optimus and the Cybertruck ramp.

However, the firm believes that the stock performance is more dependent on auto sales trends. The firm maintains a Neutral rating on TSLA with a $475 price target. Tesla Inc.

(NASDAQ:TSLA) is a developer, manufacturer, designer, lessor, and seller of electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems. The company operates across China, the United States, and globally. It operates through the Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage segments.

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