Wall Street has sky-high expectations for second quarter earnings

Wall Street has sky-high expectations for second quarter earnings Brian Sozzi · Executive Editor Mon, June 29, 2026 at 4:13 PM GMT+2 2 min read ^GSPC The bar is set super high for this coming earnings season — maybe a little too high. Quick insight: Following the strength of first quarter earnings, analysts have set a high bar for the second quarter. They're expecting S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) earnings per share (EPS) to grow 22% year over year, according to Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider.

This is the highest estimate heading into earnings season since 2021. Coming into the first quarter, analyst estimates pointed to 12% EPS growth for the S&P 500. The realized growth rate of 27% exceeded that forecast by 15 percentage points.

The elevated bar this quarter suggests that S&P 500 EPS growth will exceed the consensus estimate by a smaller magnitude than in the first quarter, Snider noted. Earnings estimates are very high for 2Q. · Goldman Sachs The reason: Companies have a lot on their plates, hinting that earnings estimates are a little too high right now.

Investors must watch whether megacap tech giants such as Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Meta ( META ) can show tangible revenue from artificial intelligence to justify their massive, multibillion-dollar infrastructure capital expenditures. Wall Street will also be laser-focused on corporate margin durability, tracking how well companies are absorbing higher input costs caused by the Iran war. Additionally, corporate guidance will be heavily scrutinized for signs of a widening "K-shaped" consumer divergence, which has begun favoring cheaper private-label volume over premium ticket sizes.

"A solid macro backdrop and the ongoing AI investment boom should lead to another quarter of strong earnings results despite an elevated hurdle set by analyst estimates," Snider said. The bottom line: The market's gains for the year have been mostly fueled by strong expectations around corporate earnings growth. That makes it especially critical for companies to deliver big-time comes earnings season.

If not, we could see a summer swoon in stocks as investors dial back their earnings expectations. Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi , Instagram , and LinkedIn .

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