Bitcoin Could Fall Further if Fed Raises Rates, Grayscale Says — How Low Could It Go?

Bitcoin Could Fall Further if Fed Raises Rates, Grayscale Says — How Low Could It Go? Kurt Robson Mon, June 29, 2026 at 6:07 PM GMT+2 5 min read BTC-USD Key Takeaways Grayscale says Fed policy could determine Bitcoin's next move. Regulation and corporate leverage remain major risks.

Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's bottom. Bitcoin's price could face further downside if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, according to asset manager Grayscale, as analysts continue to debate whether it has already reached its cycle low. Bitcoin was trading around $59,783 at the time of writing, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 50% below its October peak near $125,000.

While Grayscale said the current decline appears consistent with previous cyclical pullbacks, it warned that several developments could drive it lower. Grayscale Says Fed Rate Hikes Could Push Bitcoin Lower In a research report published June 26, Grayscale said the biggest headwind for Bitcoin in recent months has been a sharp shift in expectations for US monetary policy. The firm said investors had previously expected President Donald Trump to nominate a relatively dovish Federal Reserve chair, but instead appointed Kevin Warsh , who has adopted a more hawkish stance amid persistent inflation.

"As a result, the Fed is now expected to hike rates rather than cut rates this year," Grayscale wrote. According to the asset manager, the changing rate outlook has weakened what it described as the "debasement trade" that previously supported both Bitcoin and gold. Grayscale said a more aggressive Fed could weigh further on Bitcoin if inflation remains stubborn and policymakers are forced to continue tightening financial conditions.

Under its downside scenario, the firm said Bitcoin could "fall moderately further" if the Federal Reserve raises rates. However, it noted that it does not expect declines as severe as previous bear markets. CLARITY Act Among Key Risks Facing Bitcoin Beyond monetary policy, Grayscale identified several crypto-specific catalysts that could influence Bitcoin's next move.

The firm said uncertainty surrounding the proposed CLARITY Act , continued pressure on Strategy's leveraged balance sheet, and growing investor concerns around quantum computing risks have all contributed to weaker sentiment. Grayscale outlined two possible paths for the market. In its base-case scenario, the CLARITY Act passes the US Senate, and Strategy strengthens its balance sheet — potentially meaning Bitcoin is already close to its cyclical bottom.

However, if the legislation stalls and corporate Bitcoin holders continue deleveraging, Grayscale said Bitcoin could experience additional downside before recovering. Story Continues Despite the near-term risks, the firm maintained a bullish long-term outlook. "We see many structural positives for the crypto asset class and believe current valuations offer compelling entry points for investors with longer-term horizons," Grayscale wrote.

Bitcoin Finds Buyers Despite Sharp Correction Bitcoin was trading at approximately $60,582 at the time of reporting, down around 6% in the last week. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, told CCN that recent price action continues to reinforce Bitcoin's longer-term investment case despite the steep correction. "The latest price action in crypto may feel discouraging at first glance, but beneath the surface it continues to reinforce what is becoming an increasingly compelling medium and longer-term investment case," Kruger said.

He noted Bitcoin found "another wave of strong buying" around the $59,000 level after briefly breaking below its yearly low. From a technical perspective, Kruger said the recent rebound increased the likelihood that Bitcoin is forming a major double-bottom pattern. "A move back above the recent high near $63,200 would reinforce that view," he said.

Kruger added that a break above resistance near $67,300 could open the way toward $80,000 while bringing "$100,000 and a retest of the record high back into focus. " Potential Bitcoin Price Bottom Near $44,488? Not everyone believes Bitcoin has reached its low.

Jason Williams, host of the Going Parabolic podcast, has argued that historical market cycles suggest Bitcoin could still decline to around $44,488. Williams said Bitcoin's realized price—the average on-chain acquisition cost of all holders—has historically marked an important reference point during every bear market. "Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realized Price," Williams wrote on X.

According to Williams, Bitcoin traded at: 58% below the realized price during the 2011 bear market 49% below in 2015 47% below in 2018 34% beneath the metric during the 2022 cycle. He argued the progressively smaller drawdowns suggest diminishing downside across successive cycles. Applying that trend to today's realized price, Williams estimated Bitcoin could bottom roughly 17% below the metric, implying a price near $44,488.

Gary Cardone Warns Bitcoin Price Could Fall Toward $30,000 Investor Gary Cardone has also cautioned that Bitcoin could experience substantially deeper losses if demand fails to improve. "Bitcoin needs Buyers….. Without buyers, Sellers will get pushy," Cardone wrote on X.

He has repeatedly argued that weakness across the broader digital asset market, particularly Ethereum and projects built around it, continues to weigh on investor confidence. "The asset needs real demand to recover," Cardone said during an appearance on Yahoo Finance's The Daily Wolf. Adding: "When supply exceeds demand, prices fall.

" While Cardone has said he remains a long-term Bitcoin buyer, he has warned that prices could fall significantly before stronger institutional demand emerges. In previous comments, Cardone said Bitcoin could revisit levels as low as $30,000 if selling pressure intensifies. Top Picks for Bitcoin Get A Great Offer When You Join These Exchanges How To Buy Bitcoin With a Credit Card Now See Our Picks for the Best Crypto Gambling Sites The post Bitcoin Could Fall Further if Fed Raises Rates, Grayscale Says — How Low Could It Go?

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